{"product_id":"predictability-and-nonlinear-modelling-in-j-grasman-9780792329435","title":"Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics","description":"1. Geophysics.- Karl Popper and the accountability of scientific models.- Evaluation of forecasts.- The Liouville equation and prediction of forecast skill.- An improved formula to describe error growth in meteorological models.- Searching for periodic motions in long-time series.- Comparison study of the response of the climate system to major volcanic eruptions and el nino events.- Detection of a pertubed equator-pole temperature gradient in a spectral model of the atmospheric circulation.- A simple two-dimensional climate model with ocean and atmosphere coupling.- Climate modelling at different scales of space.- 2. Agriculture.- Simulation of effects of climatic change on cauliflower production.- Validation of large scale process-oriented models for managing natural resource populations: a case study.- Uncertainty of predictions in supervised pest control in winter wheat, its price and its causes.- The implications and importance of non-linear responses in modelling the growth and development of wheat.- Growth curve analysis of sedentary plant parasitic nematodes in relation to plant resistance and tolerance.- 3. Population Biology.- Using chaos to understand biological dynamics.- Qualitative analysis of unpredictability: a case study from childhood epidemics.- Control and prediction in seasonally driven population models.- Simple theoretical models and population predictions.- Individual based population modelling.- Ecological systems are not dynamical systems: some consequences of individual variability.- Spatio-temporal organization mediated by hierarchy in time scales in ensembles of predator-prey pairs.- Continental expansion of plant disease: a survey of some recent results.- Modelling of fish behavior.- 4. Systems sciences.- Understanding uncertain environmental systems.- System identification by approximate realization.- Sensitivity analysis versus uncertainty analysis: when to use what?.- Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainty contributions from several independent multivariate sources.- Assessing sensitivities and uncertainties in models: a critical evaluation.- UNCSAM: a software tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mathematical models.- Set-membership identification of nonlinear conceptual models.- Parameter sensitivity and the quality of model predictions.- Towards a metrics for simulation model validation.- Use of a Fourier decomposition technique in aquatic ecosystems modelling.- Multiobjective inverse problems with ecological and economical motivations.- An expert-opinion approach to the prediction problem in complex systems.- 5. Environmental Sciences.- Critical loads and a dynamic assessment of ecosystem recovery.- Uncertainty analysis on critical loads for forest soils in Finland.- Monte Carlo simulations in ecological risk assessment.- Sensitivity analysis of a model for pesticide leaching and accumulation.- Bayesian uncertainty analysis in water quality modelling.- Modelling dynamics of air pollution dispersion in mesoscale.- Uncertainty factors analysis in linear water quality models.- Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment combined: application to a bioaccumulation model.- Diagnosis of model applicability by identification of incompatible data sets illustrated on a pharmacokinetic model for dioxins in mamals.- Regional calibration of a steady state model to assess critical acid loads.- Uncertainty analysis for the computation of greenhouse gas concentrations in IMAGE.- 6. Economics.- Forecast uncertainty in economics.- Some aspects of nonlinear discrete-time descriptor systems in economics.- Quasi-periodic and strange, chaotic attractors in Hick's nonlinear trade cycle model.- Monte Carlo experimentation for large scale forward-looking economic models.- Erratic dynamics in a restricted tatonnement process with two and three goods.- Chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional overlapping generation model: a numerical investigation.- Nonlinearity and forecasting aspects of periodically integra...\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eAuthor:\u003c\/b\u003e J. Grasman\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN-10:\u003c\/b\u003e 0792329430\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN-13:\u003c\/b\u003e 9780792329435\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublisher:\u003c\/b\u003e Kluwer Academic Publishers\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eLanguage:\u003c\/b\u003e English\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublished:\u003c\/b\u003e 06\/30\/1994\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePages:\u003c\/b\u003e 664\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eFormat:\u003c\/b\u003e Hardcover\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eWeight:\u003c\/b\u003e 2.42lbs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eSize:\u003c\/b\u003e 9.21h x 6.14w x 1.44d","brand":"J. Grasman","offers":[{"title":"Hardcover","offer_id":47001228214527,"sku":"9780792329435","price":99.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0662\/2982\/9887\/files\/img_446306d4-49a4-49d7-8dfd-2c406d2e83c1.jpg?v=1751600442","url":"https:\/\/www.whiterainbookhouse.com\/products\/predictability-and-nonlinear-modelling-in-j-grasman-9780792329435","provider":"WR Book House","version":"1.0","type":"link"}