{"product_id":"survival-guide-for-outsiders-sherman-k-stein-9781500132309","title":"Survival Guide for Outsiders: How to Protect Yourself from Politicians, Experts, and Other Insiders","description":"Politicians, business leaders, and so-called experts and pundits are \u003ci\u003eInsiders\u003c\/i\u003e with stakes in public decisions. They use tricks to rig things in their favor. \u003ci\u003eOutsiders\u003c\/i\u003e have a stake in the action and a role to play but how can they cut through the flimflam to see what should be done? Sherman Stein's \u003ci\u003eSurvival Guide for Outsiders\u003c\/i\u003e has the answer. Stein begins with \u003ci\u003eThe Model\u003c\/i\u003e how we interpret what is out there. He shows how \u003ci\u003eInsiders\u003c\/i\u003e shape our opinions by omission and misrepresentation. An argument that smells fishy is probably the \u003ci\u003eDead Fish\u003c\/i\u003e you thought it was. Often forming \u003ci\u003eNo Opinion\u003c\/i\u003e is the best course. Stein shows that in many situations there is no \"best policy,\" but rather we have a choice between \u003ci\u003eIncomparables\u003c\/i\u003e. He shows how \u003ci\u003eHidden Choices\u003c\/i\u003e often guide us. He shows the uses and misuses of \u003ci\u003eNumber\u003c\/i\u003e to guide policy, with special attention to probabilities and the \u003ci\u003eGRIMP\u003c\/i\u003e (Gigantic Risk with Incredibly Minute Probability). All policy is influenced by experts, some of whom act as shamans, providing vision and assurance that things will work as planned, while others serve as pros - such as the engineers or doctors on whom we count for their knowledge and skills. Sherman Stein looks at the record of expert judgment and finds it often wrong. His case studies reinforce Philip Tetlock's \u003ci\u003eExpert Political Judgment: How Good Is It?\u003c\/i\u003e Summing up, Stein shows how \u003ci\u003eThe Action Principle\u003c\/i\u003e drives us to do something when we would be better off not acting. He outlines our Limits, concluding on a note of \u003ci\u003eGood Cheer\u003c\/i\u003e. \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eCONTENTS\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eThe Journey.\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e Perception: How Things Appear.\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Model and Us Frivolous Ones\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Bull's Eye and the Rings \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eVeneer \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDistortion by Omission\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDistortion by Commission\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Art of No opinion \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Dead-Fish Principle\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e Choice: How we Decide.\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Incomparables\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHidden Choice\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e Number: The Influence of Numbers on Policy.}\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eBeware the Number \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eSecond Warning about Numbers \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThird Warning about Numbers \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhere Did That Number Come From? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA Scale for Uncertainty \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIt Will Definitely Happen, Perhaps \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eJust Try to Measure It \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe GRIMP \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat Is a Job? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Professional and the Shaman \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eExpert Creep \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eTelling a professional from a Shaman \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Shaman-Layman Contract \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Audit \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eSpinoff and Side Effect \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Scientific Method \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProphecy: Modeling the Future \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCasual Audits \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eSerious Audits \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe Action Syndrome \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eLimits \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eBe of Good Cheer \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eNotes \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIndexes \u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eAuthor:\u003c\/b\u003e Sherman K. Stein\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN-10:\u003c\/b\u003e 1500132306\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eISBN-13:\u003c\/b\u003e 9781500132309\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublisher:\u003c\/b\u003e Createspace Independent Publishing Platform\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eLanguage:\u003c\/b\u003e English\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePublished:\u003c\/b\u003e 06\/08\/2014\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePages:\u003c\/b\u003e 288\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eFormat:\u003c\/b\u003e Paperback\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eWeight:\u003c\/b\u003e 0.85lbs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eSize:\u003c\/b\u003e 9.02h x 5.98w x 0.60d\u003c\/ul\u003e","brand":"Sherman K. Stein","offers":[{"title":"Paperback","offer_id":43935125438719,"sku":"9781500132309","price":14.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0662\/2982\/9887\/products\/img_b6795b0a-6022-4840-a764-e5ff56f7cce5.jpg?v=1681418000","url":"https:\/\/www.whiterainbookhouse.com\/products\/survival-guide-for-outsiders-sherman-k-stein-9781500132309","provider":"WR Book House","version":"1.0","type":"link"}