A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area (Paperback) (ISBN-13: 9781511660518)

We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction betweenmacroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables arenecessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explainedby the high correlation between trade and macroeconomic variables, with the latterbeing released in a more timely manner. Second, the model tracks well the dynamicsof trade variables conditional on the path of macroeconomic variables during the greatrecession; this result makes our model a reliable tool for scenario analysis. Third, wequantify the contribution of the most important euro area trading partners (regions)to the aggregate extra euro area developments: we evaluate the impact of an increaseof the external demand from a specific region on the extra euro area trade.

Author: Federal Reserve Board
ISBN-10: 1511660511
ISBN-13: 9781511660518
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Language: English
Published: 04/10/2015
Pages: 36
Format: Paperback
Weight: 0.24lbs
Size: 11.02h x 8.50w x 0.07d