Brac to the Future: An Analysis of Past Savings From Base Closings (Paperback) (ISBN-13: 9781288330836)

This thesis uses regression to analyze the savings resulting from the previous four rounds of BRAC in terms of their affect on each of the Air Force budget appropriations. For each appropriation, while the number of major installations initially appears to be a significant determinant in explaining the change in the budget, the number of bases becomes insignificant if a surrogate for Air Force mission requirements is included as the explanatory variable. We tested three surrogate measures for mission requirements: number of flying hours, number of aircraft, and number of active duty personnel. In each case, we found the number of active duty Air Force members to be a better predictor of the budget level than the regression model that included the number of major installations. We conclude that mission requirements are a better indicator of the required funding than the number of major installations.

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